Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 11 months on 1/12/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 8/12/14, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
Energy stock sector ETF (XLE) Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 9 weeks on 8/12/14 and remains systematically neutral. XLE/SPY has been declining since 6/23/14.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,933.75, down 0.16%) absolute price opened modestly lower and traded choppy with a downside bias most of the day. A recovery in the final 89 minutes cut the loss by the close. SPX closed slightly below both the (true) open and the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
NYSE total volume fell 7% to a level 21% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead. Volume can provide insights that are not available from the majority of indicators, which are based on price.
Declining volume suggests that the bears may be growing somewhat hesitant about shorting into stock price weakness. Declining volume also reveals that the bulls remain reluctant to risk buying stocks long.
Momentum is a leading indicator of price change, and failing price momentum is often followed by a down move for price. Short-term momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the SPX broke down to their lowest levels in more than 6 months on 8/7/14 , thereby confirming their preexisting downtrends. Both turned down on 7/7/14, after failing to match their highs of 6/10/14–despite higher highs for the S&P 500 Index on which these oscillators are based. Furthermore, these same momentum oscillators consistently have remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite much higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, both oscillators have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at +48, has been running below its peaks above +800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Stock market sentiment indicators have been at excessive, multiyear high levels of bullishness (which is bearish), bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always), suggesting distribution. These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend that the stock market has been ignoring for months.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory entered a Secondary Reaction to the downside, as the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average made lower highs and lower lows for more than 3 weeks. Such a downside correction can last several months. Although not part of the Dow Theory, all 3 Dow-Jones Averages (Industrial, Transportation, and Utility) crossed below their 50-day SMAs on 7/31/14, thereby demonstrating price weakness by separate objective method.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 13 years on 8/7/14 and remains systematically bullish. The absolute price of QQQ rose to a 13-year closing price high on 7/23/14 and held its 50-day SMA during the recent minor pullback. The price 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on 1/28/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) rose to its highest level in 8 months on 8/11/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend. This RS ratio’s rising 50-day SMA crossed above the falling 200-day SMA on 8/1/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) has been systematically neutral most of the time since making a low on 3/13/14. Absolute price is systematically neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2 years on 8/8/14. EFA/SPY has remained systematically bearish most of the time over the past 6 years.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 6 months on 7/29/14 but remains systematically neutral, with 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 20 months on 7/28/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. IWM/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 4/29/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has turned weak since it peaked at 120.97 on 7/1/14.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months on 7/29/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. MDY/SPY 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Absolute price has turned weak since it peaked at 264 on 7/1/14.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 8/5/14. UUP is currently systematically neutral, but the 50-day SMA is rising up toward the 200-day SMA, such that a bullish crossover may be possible in weeks ahead if price rises further. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 5 months on 7/11/14. DBA crossed below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price fell to its lowest price level in 4 months on 8/7/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downside correction. Price remains systematically neutral. Long term, USO has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 22.74 on 2/19/09. Support 35.62, 34.97, 34.00, 32.68, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 36.58, 38.30, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price appears to be base building since hitting a bottom at 114.46 on 12/31/13. GLD appears to be in neutral trading range, with the GLD price crisscrossing its 50-day and 200-day SMAs for several months. Long term, GLD has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 114.46 on 12/31/13. Support: 119.42, 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 129.21, 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 11 months on 1/12/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 7/9/14 and remains systematically bullish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price fell below its lows of the previous 6 weeks and fell below its 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 8/4/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Long term, SLV has been in a neutral/sideways trend since bottoming at 17.75 on 4/27/13. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 20.64, 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 8 weeks on 8/7/14, again confirming a downside correction. The 50-200 SMA remains negative, with 50Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 8/12/14, thereby confirming a medium-term downtrend. Long term, JJC has been in a downtrend since topping at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.00% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
1.90% , BC , BRUNSWICK
1.15% , FAST , Fastenal Company
0.99% , ALL , ALLSTATE
0.33% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
0.28% , INTU , INTUIT
0.40% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
1.37% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
0.81% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
0.30% , XRX , XEROX
1.27% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
0.09% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
0.28% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
0.21% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
0.42% , AEE , AMEREN
0.32% , XLB , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.20% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.31% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
0.11% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
0.03% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
0.23% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
0.09% , ITT , ITT INDS
0.05% , SPHQ.K , S&P 500 High Quality PS, SPHQ
0.05% , JNK , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.07% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.29% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
0.01% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
0.13% , BDX , BECTON DICKINSON
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-75.57% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-3.96% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-4.12% , CVG , CONVERGYS
-11.29% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-2.46% , MBI , MBIA
-0.67% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.70% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-1.52% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-1.56% , A , AGILENT TECH
-0.39% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.60% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
-1.40% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.64% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.19% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
-2.00% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-1.25% , MDP , MEREDITH
-0.78% , DE , DEERE & CO
-0.75% , STT , STATE STREET
-1.63% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
-0.52% , L , LOEWS
-0.30% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-0.53% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-0.53% , AET , AETNA
-0.32% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-0.30% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.09% , PRF , Value LargeCap Fundamental RAFI 1000, PRF
-0.48% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
-1.49% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
-0.59% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-0.14% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.37% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.05% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.18% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.85% , Australia Index, EWA
0.72% , Spain Index, EWP
0.48% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.40% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.32% , Italy Index, EWI
0.32% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.31% , Mexico Index, EWW
0.25% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.23% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.22% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.22% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.22% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.20% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.18% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.14% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.13% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.13% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.12% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.11% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.11% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.11% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.10% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.08% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.08% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.08% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.07% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.07% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.07% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.05% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.05% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.04% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.03% , Canada Index, EWC
0.02% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.02% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.00% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.00% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.00% , Dividend International, PID
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.02% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.02% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.02% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.03% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.03% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.04% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.04% , Global 100, IOO
-0.04% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.04% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.04% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.05% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.05% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.05% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.05% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.06% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.07% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.07% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.07% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.07% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.07% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.07% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.08% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.08% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.09% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.10% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.10% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.12% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.13% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.14% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.14% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.14% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.14% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.15% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.15% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.16% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.16% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.16% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.17% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.17% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.17% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.17% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.18% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.18% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.19% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.21% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.22% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.23% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.23% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.23% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.23% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.24% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.25% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.26% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.26% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.29% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.29% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.30% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.30% , France Index, EWQ
-0.30% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.31% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.33% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.33% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.35% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.35% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.36% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.36% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.37% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.37% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.37% , India PS, PIN
-0.39% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.39% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.39% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.40% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.46% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.49% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.50% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.52% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.54% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.58% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.60% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.62% , Networking, IGN
-0.62% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.63% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.64% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.64% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.64% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.65% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.66% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.67% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.68% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.69% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.73% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.74% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.75% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.78% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.79% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.79% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.82% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.94% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.97% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.02% , Germany Index, EWG
-1.40% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.54% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1991.39, high of 7/24/2014
1955.77, 50-day SMA
1952.86, low of 7/10/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1904.78, low of 8/7/2014
1902.17, high of 5/13/2014
1897.28, high of 4/4/2014
1864.62, 200-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
