Friday, November 21–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are solidly higher U.S. stock indexes and higher crude oil prices.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Wow! Did you see the price moves Thursday afternoon in the U.S. T-Bond and T-Note futures markets? At one point late Thursday afternoon T-Bonds were up over six full points. That’s the biggest one-day move in T-Bond prices that I can remember in my 25 years in this business. With the U.S. stock indexes rebounding overnight, today’s trading looks to be extra, extra important for the near-term trends not only U.S. stock indexes, but many other markets, too. My bias is that the U.S. stock indexes have, or are close to, putting in major lows. If that is indeed the case, then many commodity futures markets are also likely close to putting in major lows. It should be an interesting and volatile day today!–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are higher in early morning trading today on short covering after the big losses Thursday. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes, even though they are near-term technically oversold and due for a bigger bounce.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the contract low of 748.30 and then at 725.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 786.00 and then at 800.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 812.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 771.10
1st Support:——– 722.20
2nd Support:——– 696.10
1st Resistance:—– 797.20
2nd Resistance:—– 846.10
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the contract low of 1,031.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,000.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,075.00 and then at the overnight high of 1,090.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,117.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,061.85
1st Support:—— 1,008.70
2nd Support:—— 977.85
1st Resistance:— 1,092.70
2nd Resistance:— 1,145.85
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 7,600 and then more stops just below support at 7,500. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 7,800 and then just above resistance at 7,900. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,007
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 7,711
1st Support:—— 7,246
2nd Support:—— 7,006
1st Resistance:— 7,951
2nd Resistance:— 8,416
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are mixed in early trading today, after mammoth gains Thursday. Bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126 11/32 and then at 126 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 127 16/32 and then at 128 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 125 6/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 127 4/32
1st Support:—– 124 21/32 2nd Support:—– 120 3/32
1st Resistance:– 131 22/32
2nd Resistance:– 134 5/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 120.16.0 and then at 121.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 119.29.5 and then at 119.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119.12.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 120 30/32
1st Support:—– 120 2/32 2nd Support:—– 118 15/32
1st Resistance:– 122 17/32
2nd Resistance:– 123 14/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 88.00 and then at 88.50. Shorter-term support is seen at 87.50 and then at 87.12. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.71. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
The December Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2500 and then just below support at the overnight low of 1.2415. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2618 and then at 1.2700. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2694. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today. Trading has been choppy. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $761.00 and then at $770.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $750.00 and then at the overnight low of $743.20. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $740.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. Prices fell to another fresh two-year low overnight. Bears are still in near-term technical control. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $50.65 and then just above resistance at $51.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $48.25 and then more sell stops just below support at $47.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $53.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower in overnight trading, but did finish well off the overnight lows. The key “outside markets” are bullish early today–crude oil prices are firmer and the U.S. dollar is weaker. U.S. stock indexes are also firmer. Grain bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grains. There has not been much new fresh fundamental news in the grain markets recently, so traders are continuing to focus on the outside markets for direction.
