Materials and Energy stocks demonstrate relative weakness.

Materials (XLB) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 3 months on 11/29/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend.

Energy (XLE) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 7 months on 11/29/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 12 weeks on 11/29/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price 50-day SMA is approaching the 200-day SMA, and a probable cross in days ahead would be systematically bearish.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price remains systematically neutral–but price is only slightly above its 50-day SMA and could easily fall below it again.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,805.81, down 0.08%) absolute price opened higher on Friday and rose to a new intraday high at 1813.55 before falling back below the previous day’s close. The S&P 500 closed below the open and below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.

NYSE total volume fell 39% to a level 56% below its 200-day SMA, reflecting the early close at 1:00 pm ET. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line and the Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE both rose again on Friday. Although both Lines remain systematically bullish above 50- and 200-day day SMAs, both remained below their previous 2013 highs, thereby signaling bearish divergence compared to the large-capitalization stock price indexes, which made higher highs in November.

Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 actually declined last week after stalling out below their October highs as the S&P 500 price rose to higher price highs in November. Previously, both remained stubbornly and bearishly divergent below first half 2013 highs as the S&P 500 rose to higher highs in July, August, September, and October.

Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, excessive bullish sentiment, and prospects for continuing dysfunctional political games remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 11/27/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF also fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months 11/13/13, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by whipsawing back down below its 50-day SMA. Long term, the 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 2 months on 11/27/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 11/6/13 by rising back up above its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 12 weeks on 11/29/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting medium-term downtrend. MDY/SPY turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 11/5/13 by falling below its 50-day SMA. Absolute price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 11/7/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). UUP is only slightly above its 50-day SMA and could easily fall below it again. The 50-day SMA remains in a weak position below its 200-day SMA. UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/18/13, thereby confirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/29/13, when it fell below its 50-day SMA. DBA price was in a cyclical bear market for 29 months from a peak at 35.58 on 3/4/11 to a low of 24.36 on 8/2/13.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 11/27/13, thereby reconfirming a medium-term downtrend. The price 50-day SMA is approaching the 200-day SMA, and a probable cross in days ahead would be systematically bearish. Support 32.94, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.37, 35.61, 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 4 months on 11/25/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. GLD price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 114.68, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 11/25/13, thereby confirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/27/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/27/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV/GLD fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). SLV underperformed GLD substantially for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 11/20/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. Price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 11/4/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.19% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
0.72% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
0.23% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
1.09% , JCP , JC PENNEY
0.15% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.11% , IGV , Software, IGV
0.07% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
0.20% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.19% , EFG , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.23% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.78% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
0.71% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.15% , IVE , Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.46% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-0.25% , IWR , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.38% , SPHQ.K , S&P 500 High Quality PS, SPHQ
-0.32% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
-0.04% , VV , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.32% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.48% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.01% , SHV , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.24% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.08% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
2.00% , India PS, PIN
1.97% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.55% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.48% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.39% , Mexico Index, EWW
1.15% , South Korea Index, EWY
1.13% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.12% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.04% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.03% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.98% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.97% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.90% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.86% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.83% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.83% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.81% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.72% , Italy Index, EWI
0.71% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.65% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.63% , Germany Index, EWG
0.60% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.60% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.59% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.57% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.57% , Dividend International, PID
0.57% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.54% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.46% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.41% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.40% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.39% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.38% , Canada Index, EWC
0.35% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.34% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.32% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.30% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.28% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.26% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.22% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.22% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.21% , Spain Index, EWP
0.21% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.20% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.20% , Networking, IGN
0.20% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.20% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.19% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.18% , Global 100, IOO
0.18% , France Index, EWQ
0.18% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.16% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.16% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.15% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.14% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.11% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.10% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.10% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.09% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.08% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.07% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.04% , Water Resources, PHO
0.04% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.04% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.03% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.01% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Russia MV, RSX
0.00% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.03% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.03% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.04% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.04% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.05% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.05% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.05% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.05% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.05% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.05% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.05% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.05% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.06% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.06% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.06% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.07% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.08% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.08% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.08% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.08% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.09% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.09% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.09% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.10% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.10% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.11% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.12% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.12% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.13% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.13% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.14% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.15% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.15% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.16% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.16% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.16% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.19% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.21% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.23% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.23% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.23% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.24% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.24% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.24% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.25% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.26% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.28% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.28% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.28% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.30% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.31% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.32% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.34% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.37% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.37% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.42% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.44% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.46% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.47% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.47% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.48% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.55% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.63% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.69% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.81% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.92% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.93% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-1.05% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.05% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1777.23, low of 11/20/2013
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1742.11, 50-day SMA
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1650.24, 200-day SMA
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009