It appears likely that the stock market may have begun a minor downside correction for the short term.

Tuesday’s drop of 1.59% based on S&P 500 closing prices only was the largest decline in 9 weeks.

Tuesdays drop was the 14th down day in 7 weeks.

All downside corrections over the past 7 weeks have been brief and mild.

These price pullbacks lasted only 1 to 3 trading days.

Since 8/31/10, there has not been a down move of as much as 2%, based on S&P 500 closing prices only.

Major price indexes closed above previous 5-month highs on Monday, 10/18/10, thereby confirming an uptrend for the intermediate term.

The long-term Primary Tide trend remains bullish, according to the Dow Theory.

So, trends in larger timeframes are not now bearish and have not been bearish all year.

Periodic profit taking is normal and expected in any ongoing uptrend.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

7.94% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
3.67% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
4.32% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
2.98% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
2.57% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
1.98% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
24.47% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
4.11% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
1.96% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
1.33% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
2.39% , ZION , ZIONS
1.59% , FHN , FIRST TENNESSEE
1.39% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
1.72% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
1.32% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
2.92% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.79% , SHW , SHERWIN WILLIAMS
0.52% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
0.58% , KMX , CarMax
0.57% , KO , COCA COLA
0.49% , IYR , Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.53% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
0.66% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
0.60% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.16% , LVLT , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
0.92% , MON , MONSANTO
0.19% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.16% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
0.14% , EMC , EMC
0.10% , INTC , INTEL
0.06% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
0.05% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.20% , AYE , ALLEGHENY ENERGY
0.24% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
0.42% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
0.83% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
0.09% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.01% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

-2.82% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-14.92% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-2.06% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-3.51% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-2.16% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-5.61% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
-5.02% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-1.68% , IGV , Software, IGV
-6.83% , CIEN.O , CIENA
-6.09% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-2.63% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-2.93% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-1.32% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
-2.75% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-5.05% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
-2.83% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-4.97% , OXY , OCCIDENTAL
-2.35% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-5.49% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
-1.41% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-3.78% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-1.69% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
-1.80% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
-2.59% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-5.53% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
-1.67% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-6.75% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-2.12% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-4.67% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.41% , IWO , Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-4.03% , F , FORD MOTOR
-1.56% , JKD , LargeCap Blend Core iS M, JKD
-3.13% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
-3.43% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-3.10% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
-3.90% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-3.43% , PKI , PERKINELMER
-2.96% , SPLS , STAPLES
-4.06% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
-5.04% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose to another new 3-month high on 10/8/10 and remains bullish. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.

Technology (XLK) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose sharply above 10-month highs on 10/15/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLK rose above 2-year highs on 10/18/10 and turned bullish: the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. Support 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 24.68 and 25.69.

Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 10/18/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish. Support 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 32.78, 33.04, 35.00, and 36.16.

Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 10/19/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish. Support 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 34.80, 35.47, and 37.56.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) remains neutral, consolidating gains between its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Absolute price rose further above 2-year highs on 10/18/10 and remains bullish. Support 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 3-month lows on 10/13/10 and remains neutral, below the falling 50-day SMA. Absolute price of XLU remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 31.27, 30.76, 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.27.

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 10/14/10 but remains technically neutral. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 but remains technically neutral. On both charts, the 50-day SMAs are below the 200-day SMAs. Price peaked at 62.30 on 4/26/10. Support 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.

Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 5-week lows on 10/12/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV remains neutral. Price peaked at 33.16 on 1/20/10. Support 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell further below 17-month lows on 10/15/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLF bounced up into the neutral zone on 10/18/10 when it crossed above its 50-day SMA. XLF price remains below its 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. XLF has been bearish most days after peaking at 17.12 on 4/15/10. Support 13.29 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose further above 7-year highs on 10/4/10, again confirming a secular (major) bullish trend. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs to confirm RS.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above 8-month highs on 10/14/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the falling 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose above 6-month closing price highs on 10/14/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio leaped up above 9-year highs on 10/15/10. The 50-day SMA remains moderately below the 200-day SMA but is quickly closing the gap.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell further below 3-month lows on 9/30/10. The ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains technically neutral, with the rising 50-day SMA moderately below the rising 200-day SMA.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 9/30/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below 12-day lows on 10/19/10, thereby suggesting a minor downside correction for the short term. For the intermediate term, Oil has been consolidating more or less sideways/neutral in a choppy trading range since topping at 87.15 on 5/3/10. Support 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 84.43, 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract price fell below 6-day lows on 10/19/10, thereby suggesting a minor downside correction for the short term. Gold rose above previous all-time highs on 10/14/10, confirming a bullish major trend. Support 1325.6, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1388.1, the high on 10/14/10.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) fell below 7-week lows on 10/15/10, thereby giving a bearish signal for the Secondary, intermediate-term trend. The RS Ratio is now below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA and falling. GDX has been underperforming GLD since 9/22/10.

Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 2-year highs on 10/14/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold significantly since 8/20/10.

Copper nearest futures contract price fell below 4-day lows on 10/19/10, thereby suggesting a minor downside correction for the short term. Copper rose above 2-year highs on 10/14/10, confirming a major uptrend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.6445, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.88, 4.0825 and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price closed above the previous day’s high on 10/19/10, perhaps indicating a flight to safety away from stocks. On the weekly chart, however, the Bond short-term trend appears uncertain. Support 130.25, 129.05, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 2-month highs on 10/13/10 but remains neutral, with the falling 50-day SMA below the falling 200-day SMA.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose above 8-month highs on 10/14/10 and has been rising since 8/24/10. This implies that fixed-income investors have been choosing more inflation protection since 8/24/10.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price gapped sharply higher and rose above 9-day highs on 10/19/10, thereby suggesting a minor oversold bounce within a well-established bearish trend for the intermediate term. As recently as Friday, 10/15/10, USD fell below 10-month lows, thereby confirming a bearish trend for the intermediate term. Long term, USD may be in a secular downtrend and merely consolidating losses since bottoming at 70.805 in March 2008. Support 76.335, 75.90, 74.27, and 70.805. Resistance 80.505, 82.335, 83.315, 83.64, 83.96, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 47.2% Bulls versus 24.7% Bears as of 10/13/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 1.91, up from 0.78 on 9/1/10. That 0.78 was the lowest level of bullish sentiment in 17 months, since 3/25/09. Previously, the ratio had fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.53, and the mean is 1.60.

VIX Fear Index plunged below 5-month lows, breaking 19 on 10/11/10, down from 48 in May. A low and falling VIX suggests increasing bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory suggests a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007. On Friday 9/24/10, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose to a new 4-month closing price high and on Tuesday 9/28/10 the Dow-Jones Transportation Average confirmed by making a new 4-month closing price high. This signals an intermediate-term Secondary uptrend, according to The Dow Theory.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,165.90) fell below 4-day lows on 10/19/10, thereby suggesting a minor downside correction for the short term. SPX lost 18.81 points or 1.59% on Tuesday, 10/18/10, but SPX closed above previous 5-month highs on Monday, 10/18/10, thereby confirming an uptrend for the intermediate term. The long-term Primary Tide trend remains bullish, confirming the Dow Theory. Periodic profit taking is normal and expected in any uptrend.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1185.53, high of 10/18/10

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

0.60% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.49% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.34% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.19% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.09% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.08% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.05% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.01% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.01% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.16% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.23% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.25% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-0.33% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.52% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.63% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.70% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.84% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.88% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.89% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.94% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-0.95% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.05% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-1.05% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-1.05% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.13% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.14% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.19% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.22% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-1.23% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-1.24% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.27% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.28% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.29% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.29% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-1.30% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.31% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.31% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.34% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.34% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.35% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.38% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.39% Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.41% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.42% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.43% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-1.45% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.46% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.46% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.46% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.46% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.47% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.48% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.49% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.50% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.51% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.57% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.61% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.61% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.61% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.65% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.67% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.72% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.72% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.74% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.77% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.79% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.81% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.87% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-1.88% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.95% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.96% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.96% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.99% Energy SPDR, XLE
-2.00% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-2.00% Global 100, IOO
-2.03% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-2.03% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-2.06% Belgium Index, EWK
-2.07% Canada Index, EWC
-2.09% India PS, PIN
-2.12% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-2.12% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-2.15% Switzerland Index, EWL
-2.16% Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.20% EAFE Index, EFA
-2.24% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-2.25% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.30% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-2.31% Singapore Index, EWS
-2.35% China 25 iS, FXI
-2.37% Spain Index, EWP
-2.37% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-2.39% European VIPERs, VGK
-2.41% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-2.43% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-2.44% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-2.45% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-2.50% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-2.56% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-2.56% Materials SPDR, XLB
-2.57% Italy Index, EWI
-2.58% Dividend International, PID
-2.59% Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.60% Energy Global, IXC
-2.63% Water Resources, PHO
-2.67% Energy DJ, IYE
-2.70% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-2.75% France Index, EWQ
-2.79% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.84% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-2.88% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-2.93% Networking, IGN
-2.94% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-2.95% Russia MV, RSX
-3.02% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-3.02% Brazil Index, EWZ
-3.07% Sweden Index, EWD
-3.07% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.08% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-3.11% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-3.12% Germany Index, EWG
-3.12% Taiwan Index, EWT
-3.15% Netherlands Index, EWN
-3.17% Emerging Markets, EEM
-3.26% Latin Am 40, ILF
-3.39% Austria Index, EWO
-3.40% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-3.43% Australia Index, EWA
-3.51% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-3.90% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-4.54% South Africa Index, EZA
-4.58% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-4.67% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-5.37% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-5.73% South Korea Index, EWY
-5.91% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME