S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,310.19) fell 3.61 points or 0.27% on Monday. SPX rose above the highs of the previous 12 trading in the morning before reversing to close lower. The day made a Bearish Engulfing Line Candlestick, a caution sign for the short term. Trading volume declined to its lowest level of the year on Monday, possibly reflecting trader hesitation to chase prices higher. SPX faces chart congestion (resistance) around and above Monday’s high, in the 1319-1333 zone. The larger, intermediate-term trend still may prove to be corrective.
Crude Oil fell below the previous 3 days lows, signaling a minor downside correction.
Gold fell below 5-day lows, confirming a minor downside correction.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) fell below its 50-day SMA and, therefore, is downgraded from neutral to bearish.
Silver fell below 2-day lows, signaling a minor downside correction.
Copper fell below 2-day lows, signaling a minor downside correction.
U.S. Treasury Bond price fell below 9-day lows before reversing to close higher. A short-term rally attempt may be possible.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.14% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
4.97% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
5.29% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
4.04% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
3.04% , FDX , FEDEX
2.49% , PWER , POWER ONE
1.77% , T , AT&T Corp., T
4.07% , SLB , SCHLUMBERGER
0.91% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
0.94% , RAI , Reynolds American
1.62% , HON , HONEYWELL INTL
0.34% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
0.89% , MO , ALTRIA, MO
1.41% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
0.98% , PDCO , Patterson Dental Company
1.23% , VZ , VERIZON COMMS
2.10% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
1.19% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
2.14% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
0.22% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
2.40% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
1.79% , OIH , Oil Services H, OIH
3.77% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
0.93% , SLM , SLM CORP
1.43% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
0.85% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
2.05% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
1.11% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
0.30% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
0.38% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
1.59% , EL , Estee Lauder
0.59% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
0.27% , AON , AON
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.27% , MAR , MARRIOTT INTL STK A
-5.74% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-5.70% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
-4.72% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-4.75% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
-4.29% , EBAY , EBAY
-0.72% , IGN , Networking, IGN
-0.39% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-2.91% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-3.54% , HAR , Harman International
-1.98% , ZION , ZIONS
-4.40% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
-2.87% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
-1.04% , XLY , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.06% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
-0.34% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-1.83% , MAS , MASCO
-0.38% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.68% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
-1.50% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-0.94% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
-1.87% , TJX , TJX
-0.81% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-0.38% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.78% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-0.52% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.27% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
-0.56% , BCR , C R BARD
-0.43% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.73% , GPS , GAP
-0.85% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
-0.68% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.50% , PID , Dividend International, PID
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 2-year highs on 3/22/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Absolute price of XLE rose above 2-year closing price highs on 3/7/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 72.90, 72.85, 68.73, 67.49, 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 79.22, 83.27 and 91.42.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 5-week highs on 3/21/11 and remains bullish. Absolute price fell below its 50-day SMA on 3/22/11 and is neutral. Support 35.08, 35.03, 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 38.09, 39.02, and 39.97.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) appears to be in a 6-weeks trading range and remains neutral. Absolute price also remains neutral. Support 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 39.58, 40.02, 40.13, and 40.70.
Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 3/23/11, turning bullish again. In addition, absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA. Support 38.06, 36.44, 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 39.64, 40.83 and 41.06.
Technology (XLK) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) just gave a clear bearish signal on 3/22/11 when the 50-day SMA of the RS Ratio crossed below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLK fell below 14-week lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 24.87, 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 26.66, 27.09, 27.43, 27.63, and 28.60.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below 3-month lows on 3/25/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price broke down below 10-week lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 15.79, 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.46, 16.85, 17.20, and 17.87.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 3/21/11 and is close to turning bearish again. Absolute price remains neutral. Support 31.43, 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 33.23, 33.37, and 33.74.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 3/25/11 and remains neutral. The Ratio is close to turning bearish again, however. Absolute price remains neutral. Support 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.96 and 30.29.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 3/25/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price broke down below 3-month lows on 3/16/11 and remains neutral. Support 30.53, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.89, 33.00, 34.89, and 36.24.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) has been rising since making a low on 2/22/11. The trend is technically neutral, with the Ratio between 50- and 200-day SMAs.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 11-month lows on 3/16/11, confirming its preexisting bearish trend.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio is neutral between is 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows on 3/25/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 11-week highs on 3/21/11 and remains bullish. Long term, the ratio rose above 20-year highs on 12/21/10, which confirmed a bullish trend.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above all-time highs on 3/21/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. The ratio turned bullish from neutral on 2/7/11, based on the relationships of the ratio itself, its 50-day SMA, and its 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below the previous 3 days lows on 3/28/11, signaling a minor downside correction. The larger trend remains bullish: Oil rose above 2-year highs on 3/7/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 97.02, 96.22, 95.14, 87.09, 83.85, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 73.52, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 106.69, 106.95, 110.30, 111.34, 120.42, 130.0, and 147.27.
Gold nearest futures contract price fell below 5-day lows on 3/28/11, confirming a minor downside correction. Support 1380.7, 1419.5, 1351.4, 1309.1, 1307.7, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1448.4.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 3/28/11 and, therefore, is downgraded from neutral to bearish.
Silver nearest futures contract price fell below 2-day lows on 3/28/11, signaling a minor downside correction. Silver rose above its 31-year high on 3/24/11, confirming its major uptrend. Support 33.565, 31.695, 31.61, 30.265, 29.635, 26.30, 24.98, and 22.84. Resistance: 38.18, 39.80, 40.50, and 50.35.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 27-year highs on 3/25/11, again reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Copper nearest futures contract price fell below 2-day lows on 3/28/11, signaling a minor downside correction. Strength in Copper suggests confidence in the economic outlook, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 4.2665, 4.076, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: 4.554, 4.6495, and 4.6575.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below 9-day lows on 3/28/11 before reversing to close higher. A short-term rally attempt may be possible. The Bond still appears to be in a minor consolidation pattern with support at 119.24. The larger 6-week trend still may be bullish. Support 119.24, 118.05, 117.04, 116.26, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 122.08, 123.22, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) turned neutral on 3/10/11 by falling below 6-week lows and below its 50-day SMA. JNK absolute price also turned neutral by falling below 7-week lows and below its 50-day SMA.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a rising trend since making a low on 8/24/10, even as absolute price of TIP has declined. A rising Relative Strength Ratio implies that fixed-income investors have been selling inflation protected TIPs at a relatively more subdued pace since 8/24/10, compared to the more severe price drop of the 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF).
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price rose above 5-day highs on 3/28/11 before reversing to close lower. Long term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, confirming a major downtrend. Support 75.505, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 76.695, 77.675, 78.98, 79.34, 81.635, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 50.6% Bulls versus 22.4% Bears as of 3/23/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 2.26, down from 2.34 the previous week and down from 3.00 on 1/12/11. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.56, and the mean is 1.63.
VIX Fear Index fell below its 5-week range on 3/25/11, hitting 17.07 intraday, and again confirming a return to bullish complacency. This follows a brief spike up to an intraday peak of 31.28 on 3/16/11. Fear was short-lived. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 2/17/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. While other Dow Theorists were fooled by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010 and called a “Bear Market”, my interpretation of the Dow Theory has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Tide Trend every day since 7/23/09.
On 3/16/11, both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average fell below their closing price lows of the previous 10 weeks. This bearish confirmation raises the possibility of a more severe Secondary Reaction downside correction that could stretch out further in time and extend further downward in price.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,310.19) fell 3.61 points or 0.27% on Monday. SPX rose above the highs of the previous 12 trading in the morning before reversing to close lower. The day made a Bearish Engulfing Line Candlestick, a caution sign for the short term. Trading volume declined to its lowest level of the year on Monday, possibly reflecting trader hesitation to chase prices higher. SPX faces chart congestion (resistance) around and above Monday’s high, in the 1319-1333 zone. The larger, intermediate-term trend still may prove to be corrective.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1344.07, high of 2/18/11
1332.28, high of 3/3/11
1323.74, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.91% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.48% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.40% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.32% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.24% Russia MV, RSX
0.22% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.19% Spain Index, EWP
0.19% Sweden Index, EWD
0.14% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.13% India PS, PIN
0.11% Italy Index, EWI
0.10% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.08% Mexico Index, EWW
0.07% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.06% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.06% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.04% Austria Index, EWO
0.04% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.04% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.03% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.03% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.03% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.03% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.02% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.00% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.00% France Index, EWQ
0.00% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% European VIPERs, VGK
0.00% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.03% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.04% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.04% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.05% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.07% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.08% Australia Index, EWA
-0.08% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.09% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.09% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.09% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.10% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.10% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.10% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.11% Global 100, IOO
-0.12% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.12% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.12% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.13% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.14% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.16% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.16% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.16% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.17% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.17% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.18% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.18% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.19% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.19% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.20% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.21% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.21% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.22% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.22% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.22% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.23% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.23% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.24% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.24% Germany Index, EWG
-0.24% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.24% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.24% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.24% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.25% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.25% Energy Global, IXC
-0.25% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.26% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.27% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.27% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.28% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.28% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.29% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.29% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.30% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.31% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.31% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.31% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.33% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.33% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.34% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.35% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.35% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.37% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.38% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.38% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.38% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.40% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.41% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.41% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.42% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.43% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.44% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.45% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.45% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.46% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.50% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.50% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.50% Dividend International, PID
-0.52% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.52% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.52% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.52% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.54% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.54% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.55% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.55% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.58% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.59% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.60% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.64% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.68% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.70% Water Resources, PHO
-0.72% Networking, IGN
-0.74% Canada Index, EWC
-0.75% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.75% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.78% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.81% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.84% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.89% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.04% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.05% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.07% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.09% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.35% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.50% Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.69% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.80% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.97% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
