On Monday, U.S. stock market price indexes opened moderately higher and rose further in 3 different upward thrusts to a peak at 2:19 p.m. Prices then drifted in the final 111 minutes but managed to hold onto almost all the earlier gains
S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,671.71, up 1.00%) closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s relative large high-low range, above the highest highs of the previous16 trading days, and above its widely-watched 50-day SMA, thereby turning systematically bullish. It was a bullish day–except for volume.
NYSE total volume fell 3% to a level 8% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
Short-term price momentum looks bullish, but for the medium term, SPX remains below its highs of May, July, and August, suggesting neutral/sideways price momentum at best. A large number of technical indicators agree that the stock market has lost significant upside momentum in recent months, and especially in recent weeks.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE both rose more sharply on Monday. The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line turned systematically bullish by rising above its 50-day SMA, but the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line remains systematically neutral below its 50-day SMA. Previously, both failed to rise above their May highs when the S&P 500 rose to a new high at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13. Therefore, both Volume and Breadth warned of bearish divergence ahead of the August downturn of the price indexes.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 8/1/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs. The action since then looks like a developing Secondary Reaction to the downside, however. On 8/27/13, both Averages fell below their lows of the previous 7 weeks. Apart from the strict form of the Dow Theory, the Transportation Average whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMAs again on 8/27/13 to confirm similar weakness in the Industrial Average, which has remained below its 50-day SMA every day since 8/15/13. On 9/9/13, the Transportation Average closed above its 50-day SMA but the Industrial Average remained below its 50-day SMA.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically bullish on 8/26/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. QQQ/SPY rose above its highest levels of the past 6 months on 8/29/13. Absolute price of QQQ rose above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed. This year, absolute price of EFA peaked at 64.14 on 5/22/13, fell to a 6-month low at 56.44 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 8/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) is systematically bullish. IWM/SPY whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price whipsawed around its 50-day SMA since 8/19/13 and is currently systematically bullish above the 50-day SMA.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) is systematically neutral. MDY/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 8/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Absolute price whipsawed around its 50-day SMA since 8/19/13 and is currently systematically bullish above the 50-day SMA.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/6/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price rose above its highs of the previous 9 weeks and whipsawed above its 50-day SMA on 8/26/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, however, DBA fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price rose further above its highs of the previous 15 months on 9/6/13, again confirming its preexisting systematically bullish trend. Support 38.14, 36.99, 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price rose above its highs of the previous 11 weeks on 8/27/13. The GLD price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, however, so GLD is far from turning systematically bullish. Support: 131.51, 123.55, 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 16 weeks on 8/27/13. SLV price trend turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 8/12/13 when price rose above its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, however, so SLV is far from turning systematically bullish. Support 22.02, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 19 weeks on 8/26/13. SLV/GLD crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains well below the 200-day SMA, however, so JJC is far from turning systematically bullish. Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
31.66% , MOLX , MOLEX
12.79% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
1.12% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
6.37% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
7.50% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
2.38% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
5.95% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
5.38% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
4.42% , AN , AUTONATION
3.80% , YHOO , YAHOO
1.40% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
2.90% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.28% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
1.04% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
3.62% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.02% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.52% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
2.30% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
6.52% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
2.02% , AA , ALCOA
1.37% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
2.51% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
2.38% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.55% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.76% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
0.88% , BMS , BEMIS
1.55% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.87% , SPHQ.K , S&P 500 High Quality PS, SPHQ
2.15% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
2.56% , EWJ , Japan Index, EWJ
2.38% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
1.39% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
3.65% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.69% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-1.15% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-0.43% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-1.60% , MTB , M&T BANK
-0.93% , SNV , SYNOVUS
-1.14% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
-1.56% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-0.99% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-0.18% , SIAL , SIGMA ALDRICH
-0.44% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-0.49% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
-0.42% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
-0.22% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-0.31% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
-1.55% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-0.26% , GIS , GENERAL MILLS
-0.08% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.41% , USB , US BANCORP
-0.44% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
-0.07% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
-0.01% , SHV , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.10% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-0.07% , CBS , CBS CORP.
-0.10% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.25% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-0.20% , CI , CIGNA
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
6.28% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
6.09% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
5.38% , Indonesia MV, IDX
3.65% , Malaysia Index, EWM
3.62% , Brazil Index, EWZ
3.48% , Mexico Index, EWW
3.41% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
3.18% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
3.07% , India PS, PIN
2.94% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.91% , Latin Am 40, ILF
2.90% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.72% , Russia MV, RSX
2.65% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
2.56% , Japan Index, EWJ
2.53% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.38% , China 25 iS, FXI
2.38% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.30% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
2.24% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
2.16% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
2.11% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
2.08% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
2.05% , Singapore Index, EWS
2.04% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.98% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
1.91% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.90% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.83% , Italy Index, EWI
1.64% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.63% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.57% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.57% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.56% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.55% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.55% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.54% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.54% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.53% , Austria Index, EWO
1.52% , Germany Index, EWG
1.52% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.51% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.51% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.51% , Australia Index, EWA
1.51% , South Africa Index, EZA
1.48% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.48% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.46% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.46% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.45% , Water Resources, PHO
1.45% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.44% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.44% , Networking, IGN
1.42% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.40% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.39% , Sweden Index, EWD
1.37% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
1.37% , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.35% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.33% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.31% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.31% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.26% , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.25% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.25% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.24% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
1.24% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.23% , South Korea Index, EWY
1.23% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
1.22% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.20% , Technology SPDR, XLK
1.19% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.19% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.18% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
1.17% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.17% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.17% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.17% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.16% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.14% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.14% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.13% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.12% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.11% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.07% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.07% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
1.07% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.04% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.04% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.03% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.03% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
1.02% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.01% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.99% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.98% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.97% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.97% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.97% , Global 100, IOO
0.96% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.96% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.95% , Spain Index, EWP
0.94% , France Index, EWQ
0.94% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.93% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.93% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.93% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.92% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.90% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.89% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.88% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.86% , Energy Global, IXC
0.83% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.83% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.83% , Dividend International, PID
0.77% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.74% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.70% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.66% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.62% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.57% , Canada Index, EWC
0.49% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.36% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.35% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.26% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.25% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.20% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.20% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.18% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.16% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.14% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.12% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.05% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.03% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.08% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.10% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.18% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.43% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.59% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.64% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.02% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.07% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1666.68, 50-day SMA
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1629.05, low of 08/27/2013
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1569.34, 200-day SMA
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
