The news overnight from Europe was poor-rising unemployment in France, falling retail sales in the UK, falling business confidence in Italy.In the US, Best Buy posted good results, and raised guidance for FY2010.This is in line with yesterday’s durable goods report, which, albeit volatile, was good news.Two things I think the markets will have hanging over them:1. Mixed signals from the Obama administration about the dollar.Both Geithner and Goolsbee seem to be willing to consider a new world reserve currency, while Obama spoke in favor of a strong Dollar. Loss of reserve status for the Dollar would be extremely disruptive, both for world trade and the markets. 2. The failed UK 40 year auction yesterday. While I’m told that 40 year paper often isn’t as in demand, this should still be a warning flag to governments that the world has limited appetite for debt and profligate policies that increase them.Today we had the final revision to Q4 08 GDP (declined; old news) jobless claims (rose, continuing claims hit a new high), and a 7 year T Note auction. Results for the auction are out at Noon Chicago time; the Fed is starting their debt buying spree today. There’s thought that it will help the auction. We also get the final U. of Mich. Consumer Confidence report at 9 AM Chicago time.
June S&P:It was testing the 821 resistance until the 7:30 numbers. Support is 813, then 810.Resistance is at the overnight high of 822, then yesterday’s high of 823.50. A move over there could run; momentum is bullish.
June NASDAQ:Doji yesterday. 1262 is resistance, and then I could see them running to the February high of 1284.50.
June Treasury Bonds:They still feel heavy. Monday’s low at 126-24.5 is important support. Watch for a move after the results of the 7 year auction.
June 10 Year T Note:An old February high at 122-28.5 is support, then Fibonacci retracement support at 122-23. MACD had a bearish crossover, but momentum is bullish today.
June Japanese Yen:Monday’s low at 10159 is key support, I’d look to sell a breakout under there; objectives would be last Monday’s low of 10119 then the intermediate low at 10054.
June Euro Currency:The news is bad, but the Euro looks bullish today.It’s clearing resistance over a little trendline off the past three day’s highs, 13655 then 13736 are objectives.
June British Pound:Momentum buy day, 14650 is resistance.
June Canadian Dollar:Bullish, momentum buy day. Resistance is 8200.
April Gold:Is it being helped by the confusion over the Dollar policy; 948 is next resistance.
May Silver:Yesterday was a doji; it’s having a good rally this morning. Monday’s high of 1374 is resistance, then the swing high at 1388.5.
May Copper: Narrow range /doji breakout setup yesterday; the recent high of 18790 is resistance.
May Cocoa: watch the recent high of 2626 for a breakout point.
May Sugar:Momentum buy day; resistance is 1312 then 1324.
May Coffee:Watch the recent high of 118.10 for a breakout point.
May Cotton:Watch 4500 for an upside breakout point.
May Crude Oil:Clearing recent highs; momentum shows it could have room to run.
June Live Cattle:Momentum buy day, holding trendline support. 8300 is resistance.
June Lean Hogs: Holding support around 7140 (so far).
May Soybeans:Another successful test of support around 948, momentum buy day. Upside resistance is around 966.
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