U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 6/17/13, confirming its preexisting downside correction.
U.S. stocks rallied early on Monday but turned choppy after peaking at 11:11 a.m. ET, seeming in reaction to a media report speculating that “Ben Bernanke is likely to signal that the US Federal Reserve is close to tapering down its $85 billion-a-month in asset purchases when he holds a press conference on Wednesday…” Still, price indexes managed to closed above the open (albeit only slightly above), above the midpoint of the Monday’s range, and above Friday’s close.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,639.04) finished up 0.76%. The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE rose moderately but remains relatively weak below its 50-day SMA, thereby demonstrating bearish divergence compared to the S&P 500, which is above its 50-day SMA now at 1,615.26.
NYSE Volume rose 7% from Friday’s low level, which was the lowest since 5/24/13.
There has been considerable technical damage to the bullish trend, damage that appears to be limiting upside potential for the stock market. A wide variety of technical oscillators have lost substantial upside momentum.
The S&P 500 fell 3.6% from 5/21/13 to 6/5/13, based on closing prices. That was the largest down wave since last September-November. It also was the longest in time, lasting 10 trading days. The magnitude and duration of that price decline might be telling us that this time is different from all previous minor price corrections since last November.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market most recently on 5/17/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average both closed at new price highs. On 5/28/13, however, the Industrial Average rose to a higher high without confirmation by the Transportation Average, which made a lower high.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 6/17/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Longer term, QQQ has underperformed SPY since 4/10/12, and so I previously warned “that Relative Strength downtrend will probably resume.”
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 6/14/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 6-month low on 6/12/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 6/14/13, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 7-month low on 6/12/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 9 months on 6/11/13. The EFA/SPY 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/14/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/28/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral). Absolute price has stalled out since peaking on 5/22/13.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 6/12/13–an obvious sign of weakness. MDY/SPY has been systematically neutral since it broke down below its 50-day SMA on 6/3/13. Absolute price has stalled out since peaking on 5/22/13.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 6/17/13, confirming its preexisting downside correction. Price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 6/3/13, when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.96, 22.69, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price has been consolidating losses in a choppy, sideways trend for 4 years, whipsawing around both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 4/18/13. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 130.51. Resistance: 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/11/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/7/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) is systematically bearish. Price has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 4/4/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.81% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
1.51% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
7.12% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
2.74% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
4.11% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
0.93% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
3.99% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
0.98% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
2.30% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
4.42% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
2.79% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
1.16% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
2.40% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
3.76% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
1.31% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
1.39% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
3.62% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
0.94% , PID , Dividend International, PID
1.72% , LM , LEGG MASON
0.97% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
0.90% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
1.33% , IFF , INTL FLAV & FRAG
2.22% , ADI.O , ANALOG DEVICES
2.73% , ECL , ECOLAB
2.43% , SPLS , STAPLES
2.03% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
2.02% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
4.02% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
2.62% , EL , Estee Lauder
0.84% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
2.53% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
1.35% , DDM , Ultra Dow30 Double, DDM
1.81% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.77% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
-0.42% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-0.99% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-2.19% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-1.07% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
-1.32% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-1.29% , TJX , TJX
-1.17% , DLX , DELUXE
-0.19% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-1.03% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-0.97% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-1.94% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
-0.72% , FDX , FEDEX
-0.81% , EFX , EQUIFAX
-0.65% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-0.27% , FHN , First Horizon National
-0.82% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-0.84% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-0.27% , MAR , MARRIOTT INTL STK A
-0.25% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.06% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
-2.00% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
-0.67% , COH , COACH
-0.59% , HD , HOME DEPOT
-0.40% , CSX , CSX
-0.16% , VLO , VALERO ENERGY
-0.07% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.06% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
-0.02% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.67% , Japan Index, EWJ
2.03% , Russia MV, RSX
2.01% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.98% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.95% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.89% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.80% , Italy Index, EWI
1.70% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.65% , France Index, EWQ
1.59% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.59% , Australia Index, EWA
1.52% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.51% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.51% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.49% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.47% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.45% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.44% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.44% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.44% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
1.41% , Germany Index, EWG
1.36% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.32% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.29% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.28% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.26% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.22% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.13% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.11% , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.10% , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.10% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
1.10% , Global 100, IOO
1.07% , European VIPERs, VGK
1.07% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
1.06% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.06% , Energy Global, IXC
1.03% , Spain Index, EWP
1.02% , Belgium Index, EWK
1.00% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.99% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.97% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.97% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.94% , Dividend International, PID
0.93% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.93% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.92% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.92% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.88% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.88% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.85% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.85% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.84% , Canada Index, EWC
0.84% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.82% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.80% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.79% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.79% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.78% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.78% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.78% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.77% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.77% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.75% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.74% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.74% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.74% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.74% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.74% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.74% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.74% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.74% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.72% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.72% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.71% , India PS, PIN
0.70% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.70% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.67% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.66% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.66% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.66% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.65% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.65% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.65% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.63% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.61% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.61% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.59% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.59% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.58% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.57% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.57% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.56% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.56% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.55% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.55% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.53% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.47% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.47% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.46% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.45% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.39% , Austria Index, EWO
0.35% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.34% , Networking, IGN
0.32% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.30% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.30% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.29% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.28% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.25% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.25% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.23% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.23% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.23% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.13% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.13% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.12% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.09% , Water Resources, PHO
0.06% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.04% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.02% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.00% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.07% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.07% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.14% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.15% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.24% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.25% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.27% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.31% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.32% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.36% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.42% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.43% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.49% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.52% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.53% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.62% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.82% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.99% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.08% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.25% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1687.18, intraday high of 5/22/2013
1674.21, intraday high of 5/28/2013
1648.69, intraday high of 6/10/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1615.26, 50-day SMA
1598.23, low of 6/6/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1501.88, 200-day SMA
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
