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Author: David Merkel

Should I Invest or Save?

“Should I Invest or Save?” An easy question, not. First, I need to know your time horizon. If it is short, save. The bank will invest your money, and you will get a little back from it. Second, I need to know who you...

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What’s Up? What’s Down?

I can’t remember who gave me this idea, but sometimes I troll through the raw PPI data to get ideas on pricing power. Here’s a list of the top 50 rising items in the PPI:Code2011 Px IncreaseCommodity...

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On Predicting the Future

I’ve long admired ECRI for their timely and accurate forecasts, and their willingness to stick by their models when things don’t seem to be immediately going their way. I have also appreciated their lack of...

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Recent Tweets

@DavidSchawel Shrink the balance sheets then for true profit; sell AFS assets, & use proceeds to buy back debt. Makes BalSht cleaner also $$ Jan 13, 2012 Could protectionism, tariffs, & a VAT lead 2 inflation? RT...

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Book Review: The Hedge Fund Mirage

In 2003 a financial gun was put to my head, telling me to relocate or be severed. I took severance because of all the ties my family had to the area. I landed at a hedge fund near me, one well enough run to be immune to the...

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Too Many Par Claims versus Sub-Par Assets

The world is a maze of debt. Debts layered on debts.The Earth and its productivity is roughly the same or better than prior years. What is the problem with the economy then?The problem is this: there are entities that made bad...

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The Rules, Part XXVIII

Rebalancing of any sort in investing presumes an underlying stability to the economic system, and thus, market returns. Rebalancing will not protect against socialism, war, or an overleveraged position. The concept of...

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Two Reasons for Life Insurance

A reader wrote to me:I periodically read your blog and it seems like you have a strong grasp of the insurance industry. As well, given your background as a life actuary I imagine you might have some valuable insights on...

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Stock Idea Series

Every now and then an idea strikes me, and I wonder if it would be worth trying. Here’s one: much of the stuff that passes for analysis of stocks on the web leaves me cold. It feels like a computer spit out a few ratios,...

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Industry Ranks January 2012

I’m working on my quarterly reshaping — where I choose new companies to enter my portfolio. The first part of this is industry analysis. My main industry model is illustrated in the graphic. Green industries are...

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