On High Correlations
There have been a lot of articles written recently about a high average correlation level in the stock market. I want to take a stab at explaining what it means and implies. A few notes before I start. First,...
Read MoreAuthor: David Merkel
Missed Opportunities
Even Hayek said something to the effect that there are no good solutions in the bust phase of the market. Opportunities to avoid the bust come in the bull phase of the market. How? Fiscal authorities could lessen the...
Read MoreBook Review: Debts Hopeful and Desperate
This book review is different. It was written back in 1963, and has not been reprinted. If you want to buy it, you will have to buy it used. My copy used to be a part of the Newport, Rhode Island Public...
Read MoreThe Rules, Part XXVI (Efficiency vs Stability)
T+1 will raise volatility. Often increases in the technical efficiency of information or trading systems increase volatility, because people can act precipitously on information, all at the same time. There was an effort...
Read MoreThe US is not Japan, but there are some Similarities
There has been a boatload of articles arguing how the US is going the way of Japan. I know, I have added to the crowd. Tonight’s piece is meant to nuance my views, because there are similarities and differences...
Read MoreApology on Irene
I was too bold in my prior statements on Hurricane Irene. Though ordinarily forecast errors persist, as of early Thursday, the errors have straightened out and the path of the storm is clear. That said, I think the...
Read MoreThe Fed: Independent or Unaccountable?
I know that central bank independence is held as sacred by those who back fiat money. But are their actions truly independent, or are they slaves to the Treasury, not truly independent, but unaccountable to voters and...
Read MoreHurricane Irene Risk
I invest in a lot of insurance companies. It is the industry I know best. When I worked for a hedge fund as an insurance analyst, they called me the weatherman. I subscribed to a wide variety of services on...
Read MoreBook Review: Saving Capitalism from Short-Termism
This book was surprisingly good, and ambitious. It takes on the short-term nature of our business culture in many areas: The nature of the problem is that the owners no longer work for the corporations, and so managers run...
Read MoreOn Long Only Equity Investing in Bear Markets
A reader sent me the following question: Hi David, this is shall be link to your impossible dream part 2 question. You mention in the article date May13 that we are probably at #4 part of cycle (looking back great called) Where...
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