I haven’t written about my portfolio management methods in a while. I’ll be writing on this a few more times over the next week or so. The eighth rule of my investing is: Make changes to the portfolio 3-4 times per year....
Read MoreI have a post on the futility of fiscal policy coming, but the hubbub over Jackson Hole has made me alter my publishing schedule. I want to give one more shot on the idea that the Fed is out of ammunition, and that unorthodox...
Read MoreI’m working on my quarterly reshaping — where I choose new companies to enter my portfolio. The first part of this is industry analysis. My main industry model is illustrated in the graphic. Green industries are cold. Red...
Read More11) I was surprised to read that there is not a perfect market in interest rate swaps. They are so vanilla, but counterparty risk interferes. 12) There is always a skunk at the party, and who better than Baruch to dis bonds? I...
Read More1) Start with the big one from yesterday. On of my favorite monetary heretics, Raghuram Rajan, whose excellent book I reviewed, Fault Lines, pointed out how he had gotten it right prior to the crisis, versus many at the Fed who...
Read MoreIlliquidity is an underrated risk. Most financial company failures are due to illiquidity, which usually takes the form of too many illiquid assets and liquid liabilities. Adding to the difficulty is that it is generally...
Read MorePeople are good about making binary comparisons for the most part, leaving aside come of the more complex choices highlighted in the book, “Priceless.” Would you like coffee or tea? Do you prefer this room painted blue or...
Read More1) Kind of like my thesis that the States give a better picture of the economy than the Federal Government, I agree with the idea that small banks better represent that health of the US economy. Most small an medium-sized...
Read More1) I am not a Treasury bond bull, per se, but I am reluctant to short until I see real price weakness. And some think that I am only a fundamentalist value investor. With bonds, it is tough to catch the turning points, and...
Read MoreHere are my thoughts on the markets, in no particular order: 1) Momentum draws investors. Long treasuries have run hard, and people like them now. My view is, if you want to short them, wait until they rise 0.1% more in yield,...
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