Aggregation of economic variables is required for macroeconomic modeling. One of the largest problems with macroeconomics is whether that aggregation makes sense, or conceals a more dynamic and diverse economy. The paradox...
Read MoreI have long said that the health of the states is a more valid measure of the health of the nation than looking at national statistics. Why? The states can’t print money, or force ask allow the central bank to buy...
Read MoreWorking as the only analyst in a small broker dealer means you occasionally get some interesting projects. There are many hucksters out there, and if they drop by your bitty broker-dealer to run their deal, skepticism, not...
Read MoreTo my readers: I am still in the process of blog repair. I have heard from a few readers that I need larger type and more contrast. I will fix that. For now, use Ctrl-+ to expand the font. I don’t...
Read MoreBefore I start this evening, a small apology to my readers. Things have been busy around here; blogging has been well below what I would like to do. Worse, for some unexplainable reason, the hosting of my blog fell...
Read MoreI’m working on my quarterly reshaping — where I choose new companies to enter my portfolio. The first part of this is industry analysis. My main industry model is illustrated in the graphic. Green...
Read MoreChanges in italics. April 2010 June 2010 Comments Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is beginning to...
Read MoreI first became interested in Social Security back in the 80s. In order to become a Fellow in the Society of Actuaries you had to study all manner of insurance programs, both private and social, to understand the framework...
Read MoreThis will be a bit of an unusual post for me. How often do I suggest option trades? Almost never. But because of auctioning of TARP warrants, there are a decent number of very long dated options trading on some...
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