The Logic of Shared Pain
While on the Ron Smith show today, one caller asked, “So, where would you cut spending?” Given my recent piece, The Virtue of a Big Bang, I was ready. My view is that in a crisis, pain should be shared as...
Read MoreAuthor: David Merkel
Notes and Comments
1) After reading a piece on Falkenblog yesterday, I decided to add up all of the profits from Fannie and Freddie over the last 20 years. Ready for how much they made? Ta-da! They lost $114 billion. When writing...
Read MoreThe Virtue of a Big Bang
If you are in the leadership of a municipality, or even a state, I have some advice for you, and it is worth many times more than you will pay to get this advice. This is no time for half measures. If you are just...
Read MoreThe Pain Has To Go Somewhere, But Where?
Roughly three months later than originally scheduled, the fiscal year 2009 Financial Report of the United States Government came out. I had predicted a few times (latest here) that the final total of debts and unfunded...
Read MoreMoat, Float, Growth
If you have to invest a lot of money, you have to think differently than the average investor. The average investor thinks he can easily get in and out of positions. Really large investors, if they are doing more...
Read MoreYou Can’t Cheat an Honest Man
An honest man knows that you can’t get something for nothing. Discounts? Sure, when warranted, but nothing is ever truly free. Someone has to pay. That is one reason why I have been skeptical about Greece...
Read MoreMore on Sovereign Risk and Semi-Sovereign Risk
When does a sovereign or semi-sovereign government default? I have seen three answers: 1) When debt is greater than future seniorage revenue (central bank profits) plus future debt repayments. (Kind of a tautology,...
Read MoreOf Credit Ratings, Sovereign Risk and Semi-Sovereign Risk
This post was prompted by Barry’s article Credit Rating Firms: Worthless in a Bull market, Damaging in a Bear Markets. When I was a bond manager, we had a rule for our analysts — ignore the rating, but read the...
Read MoreThree Years at The Aleph Blog!
Three years at The Aleph Blog? Has it been that long? Yes, the Shanghai crisis is that far in the past, which foreshadowed our current troubles, though I denied it at the time at my new blog. Why do I write...
Read MoreThoughts on my Last Two Posts
Some follow-up on my last two posts. I will be talking to those that suggested parties that would be willing to create a definitive bond blog. But, others brought up a good point, which I am well aware of, but forgot...
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