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Author: David Merkel

Five Notes on the Current Market Situation

1)  It seems that the US Government is determined to dilute its creditworthiness, and extend a large amount of credit to Fannie and Freddie.  My view is that it will not lower yields for Fannie and Freddie as much as raise...

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On Contrarianism

With markets, it doesn’t matter what people say.  What matters is what they rely upon. Face it, people have opinions, and when asked only the most cautious or prudent won’t give an answer.  Talk is cheap. But money talks.  What...

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My TIPS, Treasuries, and Inflation Model

I finished the first phase of a project today.  But first let me tell you a story.  It was 1990, and the Society of Actuaries Investment Section was holding a conference.  It was a great conference; I still have the binder from...

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Uncharted Waters

It does not matter how you measure it, the US Treasury yield curve is at its steepest level ever.  Away from that, the value for expected five-year inflation, five years from now is at its highest level ever, excluding the noise...

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On the Effects of Chinese Inflation

I have often thought that international macroeconomics boils down to looking at all of the big nations that have some degree of economic flexibility, and are willing to make non-economic decisions for political purposes.  They...

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Tribune and AIG — Two Debacles

I never thought the deal where Sam Zell bought Tribune was fair, because it relied on the savings of workers in their ESOP [employee stock ownership plan].  Here is what I wrote in the past: Your Money or Your Job! (Or Both!)...

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Catching up on Blog Comments

Before I start, I would like to toss out the idea of an Aleph Blog Lunch to be hosted sometime in January 2010 @ 1PM, somewhere between DC and Baltimore.  Everyone pays for their own lunch, but I would bring along the review...

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