We have done our best to lay out our working thesis. Even so… it usually makes sense to at least contemplate a few worst case scenarios just in case. The argument is, in a sense, that cyclical is cyclical. In a...
Read MoreThrough the final years of the previous decade the markets repeated the same basic trend change almost like clock work. Interest rates would rise through the first half of the year- usually powered by stronger energy prices- and...
Read MoreWe are going to run through a bit of a recap today. Just below are charts of the sum of 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields from February 2008 through February of 2009 and the S&P 500 Index from February of 2010. The yields...
Read MoreWe are in a bit of pickle these days. On the one hand we have suggested on many occasions that one should never argue with the bond market. When it begins to trend in a manner that seems to make no sense… the idea is to...
Read MoreWe are going to start off today with a bit of a ‘what if?’. The Decade Theme argument is based on the idea that one or more major asset classes rises to a peak in the first year of a new decade. We had commodity...
Read MoreWe have argued that the action through this year’s second quarter was crisis-related as money flowed away from risk and towards a number of perceived safe havens. Once the sense of crisis passed, however, the trends were...
Read MoreBelow is a comparison between the CRB Index and two moving average lines for Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index from 2007 into 2009. The argument is that the base trend for the CRB Index turns negative when the 100-day...
Read MoreThe markets continue to be pushed and pulled by two quite separate forces as investors attempt to get a sense of the economic recovery’s traction. On the one hand… with short-term interest rates very close to 0% the...
Read MoreThe reality is that money continues to flee risk as long-term bond prices trend higher. To argue in favor of the equity market is, to a certain extent, to argue against the bond market. In past issues we have stated time and...
Read MoreOne of our favorite financial markets quotes come from the legendary Warren Buffett when he stated that you don’t know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out. In a world leaping from crisis to crisis this is a...
Read More
