Author: Kevin Klombies

We are going to move the chart-based argument that we made on page 5 yesterday up to the front of the class. Keeping in mind that our argument through the first three days of the week was that the U.S. equity markets would stage...

We tend to get quite some distance ahead of the markets when we work with macro themes because a year- give or take- gets lost when viewing a chart that extends over a decade or two. However we remain quite fascinated with the...

We tend to believe a market is in a ‘bubble’ when one starts to read about absurd comparisons. When the market cap of a company or the price of an asset class is so high that it no longer makes sense… then it...

We added another detail to our overall thesis yesterday and in response dropped our positive view on the U.S. dollar. It wasn’t that we were no longer positive on the dollar but rather that we weren’t sure how the...

We are going to ease off on our positive dollar view for the time being simply because the euro is still holding above the 1.25 level. At times in the past we have compared the current markets situation to 1982, 1990, and even...

For the past year or three we have been arguing in favor of the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, and large cap consumer and pharma stocks. We have been negative on commodity prices, commodity cyclicals, and commodity currencies. Our...

March 4 (Bloomberg) – Stocks rose around the world, commodity prices rallied and Treasuries fell on speculation China will broaden efforts to boost growth… Many years ago we wrote that this decade would be about all...

We are going to start things off today with a relatively simple chart comparison. We show three charts of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the product of the CRB Index (commodity prices) times the U.S. 30-year T-Bond futures...

The consensus view appears to be that on the other side of the current correction/massacre there will be commodity-driven trend that favors non-U.S. equities. In other words while Russia has gone from first to worst and the CRB...

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) determined that a recession began in July of 1981 and ended 16 months later in November of 1982. Along with the recession that book-ended the 1974 stock market collapse this was...