We argued through late 2003 that the Fed was holding the funds rate too low and that eventually the markets would make them push short-term rates higher. In the first quarter of 2004 we began to argue that the driver behind...
Read MoreOne of our recurring themes over the past while has been that gold prices appear to be tracking in manner similar to the equity markets in front of the crash in 1987. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) from late...
Read MoreGoodness… where to start? The negatives have been well documented but we did see a few glimmers of hope amidst the carnage yesterday. The bond market, for example, rallied right into resistance so if prices turn lower...
Read MoreWe are going to start off with an assumption. We will assume that the long-term U.S. interest rates peaked at the end of this year’s first quarter and are now trending lower. Our premise might be tested tomorrow...
Read MoreMay 4 (Bloomberg) — Factory orders unexpectedly rose in March and more Americans signed contracts to buy previously owned homes, indicating the U.S. economy gained speed entering the second quarter. The news tends to fit...
Read MoreWe have been working with three possible scenarios that revolve around what happens next for the bond market. The first scenario suggests that bond prices bottomed in early April as the spread between long and short-term...
Read MoreWe are going to show an assortment of perspectives today.Our focus of late has been on the way potential trends for the bond market could impact the equity markets. We thought we would start off today with a bullish equity...
Read MoreThe financial press and Washington politicians seem somewhat torn these days. Goldman Sachs- the company that profited on both the way up and the way down from the housing bubble- makes for a convenient target for blame but...
Read MoreWith Greece downgraded to junk and Portugal heading in the same direction the equity markets slumped yesterday as bond prices soared. While the markets are capable of doing almost anything- especially when the trend is somewhat...
Read MoreThe premise of intermarket analysis is that trends in one market impact trends in other markets. Strong energy prices create pressures on energy ‘using’ sectors, a weak dollar supports commodity prices,...
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