Author: Kevin Klombies

In real time the markets are never obvious. In hindsight, however, many pivot points and trends are amazingly obvious. Given that we might well be in one of those ‘you should have known’ situations we thought that we...

We have argued that the U.S. stock market has exhibited a Japan-like tendency since some time in 1998. The Japanese stock market shifted over to a trend early in the 1990’s where gains were only made when yields were...

The argument is that the markets are on the verge of a major trend change. The problem is that there is some difference between being ‘on the verge’ of a trend change and an actual shift in trend. First is a chart...

The markets continue to bat back and forth between negative pressures emanating from Europe and the occasional weekly bit of positive news from U.S. jobless claims. It remains to be seen whether stronger Treasury prices and...

For the umpteenth time… we are going to lead off with the comparison between gold futures prices and the ratio between the U.S. 30-year T-Bond futures and U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). One argument would be that the S&P...

At the end of last week we introduced the argument that price peaks for crude oil have tended to occur when the ratio between crude oil and the CRB Index rises above .30. In other words for any given level of the CRB Index the...

We changed our first page chart presentation three times before finally settling on the comparison below. Whether this proves to be a good choice is open for debate.The markets don’t always have to make sense but when...

Both the U.S. dollar and long-term Treasury markets were higher in price yesterday with cyclical asset prices under pressure. We haven’t run through the four possible combinations derived from the dollar and U.S. 30-year...

We have a bewildering list of biases and views with respect to the markets. One of them has to do with 10-year yields being plus or minus 2%. The argument is that a disinflationary trend involves 10-year yields declining down to...

Let’s cut to the chase. A stronger U.S. dollar on rising U.S. short-term interest rates is bullish. A stronger U.S. dollar on falling European short-term interest rates is bearish. Below is a comparison between the euro...