There is always the chance that the current time period represents an unprecedented and wholly unique situation with regard to the markets. There is always the chance that what has happened before will not happen again....
Read MoreWe have argued that this is the right time and right place for a ‘cyclical pivot’ to occur. A ‘cyclical pivot’ represents a trend change within the markets that favors economically sensitive sectors while...
Read MoreIf one simply followed ‘the news’ it would be difficult, we suspect, to find a reason to be bullish on the cyclical sectors. We do believe, however, that the markets are setting up or, perhaps, in the process of...
Read MoreOur focus of late has been on trying to identify the start of the next cyclical upswing. The term ‘cyclical upswing’ refers to a broad-based rally for both yields and asset prices leveraged to economic activity. It...
Read MoreEquities are one part growth and one part valuation. The stock market is driven, on the one hand, by changes in interest rates and, on the other hand, by changes in the perception of future growth. In the good old days the stock...
Read MoreLike a moth to a flame we keep getting drawn back to the chart included below. When we look at it (and the various comparisons that we will show over the next two pages) we wonder whether it provides one of the best explanations...
Read MoreThe month of September is shaping up to be somewhat challenging for the cyclical sectors. The ‘stop’ on this particular observation is 30-year Treasury yields rising above 3.0%. The arguments are as follows:First,...
Read MoreIt is not that we don’t follow the news although we pay less attention to the headlines than most. It is merely that we find applying what is happening at present or, as is often the case, what has already transpired, to...
Read MoreWe are going to attempt to explain why we are currently suffering from a rather severe case of the ‘twitchies’. To do so we need to set the premise.Our view is that the markets keep repeating similar trends from...
Read MoreThe S&P 500 Index took a nice run at breaking to new recovery highs yesterday before making the case that it was still a bit early for this to happen. We still need to see 30-year Treasury yields move above 3% with the...
Read More
