The markets were roiled by two news events over the past week. China’s tightening of credit and President Obama’s rather confrontational stance with regard to the major banks. It has been our experience, however,...
Read MoreWe argue from time to time that if all we did was identify the ongoing trend we would have little to write about. There are times when we suspect that we should spend more showing the trend and less time working on when and how...
Read MoreJan. 20 (Bloomberg) — China’s stocks fell the most in a week and interest-rate swaps rose on speculation the nation’s central bank may raise borrowing costs for the first time in more than two years. Jan. 20...
Read MoreJan. 19 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose, boosted by a rally in health companies on speculation Republicans will block an industry overhaul, while Treasuries fell for the first time in three days and the dollar...
Read MoreGenerally when a market collapses one feels as if it should have been obvious. After all… weren’t we all warned time and time again about the ticking time bomb represented by sub-prime mortgages? In retrospect...
Read MoreAs of yesterday the Fed funds futures were forecasting a 0% probability of any change in the funds rate following this month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Some argue, in fact, that we may not see the first rate...
Read MoreOur sense is that a number of key markets- including and perhaps especially the U.S. dollar- are setting up to ‘swing’ around the completion of this month’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. With the...
Read MoreA markets cycle begins with falling interest rates and ends once interest rates have climbed to the next peak. Our premise today is that there are two parts to the cycle- falling yields and rising yields and that the change over...
Read MoreWe are going to start out today with an observation based on the chart shown below. The ratio between the price of gold and the S&P 500 Index (gold/SPX) reached virtually the exact same level in early 2009 that it peaked at...
Read MoreOur focus through much of the past few months has been on the bond market. The argument is that a trend that favors cyclical growth will tend to go with falling bond prices and rising long-term yields.There are periods of time...
Read More
