The thesis that we are working with suggests that the cyclical recovery will wane during the second half of the year as long-term Treasury yields decline. This would lead to general weakness in energy and base metals prices, a...
Read MoreOur two favorite defensive stocks are Wal Mart (WMT) and Nippon Tel (NTT). NTT is more of a surrogate for bond prices and the Japanese yen while WMT- in our view- tends to trend inversely to the Asian/commodity/BRIC...
Read MoreOne of our recurring themes over the past few years has been that the markets have featured a strong energy and metals price trend through the first half of the year followed by ‘something else’ over the second half...
Read MoreAug. 6 (Bloomberg) — Fraudulent or deceptive actions in the wholesale oil market may draw fines of as much as $1 million a day under a rule issued today by the Federal Trade Commission… Under the measure, practices...
Read MoreThe markets are doing their very best to confirm the notion that global economic growth has swung sharply positive. Very few sectors are arguing with this assessment but to start things off today we thought we would show two of...
Read MoreOur premise today is based on an argument that we made on a couple of occasions over the past few weeks. Following the asset price collapse in Japan in 1990 the markets shifted into a decade-long trend that included falling...
Read MoreU.S. crude oil inventories remain above the 5-year average, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has effectively been filled (capacity of 727 million barrels versus current inventory of 724 million barrels), and OPEC production is on...
Read MoreWe are going to return to an argument that we have not shown in these pages for at least a couple of quarters. The idea is based on the stock price action of biotech giant Amgen during equity markets corrections.At right we...
Read MoreJuly 29 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks fell for a second day as plunging Chinese shares and commodities stoked speculation that the surge in equities has outpaced the economy.July 29 (Bloomberg) — Treasury notes fell...
Read MoreWe launched into a new argument yesterday based on the long-term ratio between Japanese and U.S. 10-year bond futures. The idea was that the major trend between 1990 and 2000 included falling Japanese interest rates relative to...
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