With the end of the quarter approaching along with the prospect of a potential trend change we thought we would take another swing at the topic that we introduced in yesterday’s issue. The basic argument runs something...
Read MoreWe are never quite sure whether markets never repeat cycles or whether the cycles are, in fact, so long in duration that by the time you see the same thing twice a whole new generation of investors are seeing it for the first...
Read MoreThe markets are basically working through what appears to be a quarterly trend- a trend that began at the start of a quarter and will likely end or change once the new quarter begins. The trend involves rising bond and gold...
Read MoreWe should probably stop commenting on the price of gold given that it only seems to get us in trouble but… we won’t. Today we are not going to focus on whether gold prices have to go higher or lower but...
Read MoreWe start things off today with a comparison between the current situation and the cycle top through 2000. While we argued last week that the big difference between now and 2000 might be the slope of the yield curve (it was...
Read MoreJune 17 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose as a late-day rally in technology, consumer-staples and industrial companies helped the market overcome an early slump spurred by economic reports that cast doubts on the strength of...
Read MoreSlowing Asian growth appears to be putting downward pressure on interest rates even as stronger U.S. growth is pushing rates higher. To explain… earlier this month Goldman Sachs research reiterated its view that the...
Read MoreThere are two sides to every trade so we might as start off today with the ‘other side’ of the argument that we have been making in recent days. June 14 (Bloomberg) — The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note...
Read MoreOn occasion the short-term trend for the markets becomes so confusing and so fraught with emotion that we find that it makes sense to take several large steps back in search of perspective. This is especially true during periods...
Read MoreA major equity bull market began in August of 1982. Five years later- to the month- the ratio between the S&P 500 Index and the U.S. 30-year T-bond futures (SPX/TBonds) rose to a peak. Then it crashed. Our argument has been...
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