While we are all familiar with the saying that the ‘trend is your friend’ the odd thing about trends is that they are quite often difficult to discern until they have run for a few years. In hindsight, of course, the...
Read MoreWe might have been inclined to fade the message from the Decade Trend if it hadn’t worked so nicely over the last few years. In early 2009, for example, we noted on a few occasions that if the Decade Trend was still in...
Read MoreWe argued way back in the spring of 2006 that the underlying trend for commodity prices had turned negative. The problem was that commodity prices kept rising. In a sense we were absolutely correct in our view even though we...
Read MoreIt all seems to come down to simple arithmetic. The anchor to today’s argument- one that we have attempted from a number of different directions in the past- is the spread between 10-year Treasury yields and 3-month TBill...
Read MoreThe financial press continues to fixate over the SEC’s civil suit against Goldman Sachs. Many (most) of our views are simplistic and steeped thoroughly in ignorance but our thought is that we don’t like Goldman in...
Read MoreApril 15 (Bloomberg) — Brazil’s real fell after the central bank bought dollars for a second time today and investors speculated the government is concerned about the impact of the currency’s appreciation on...
Read MoreWe made a positive comment or two about the short-term prospects for gold this week only to watch gold prices immediately nick a bit lower. While we believe that gold has the potential to push upwards we thought we had best...
Read MoreLet’s start out by explaining the thesis.Our view is that economic cycles are dominated by either consumer spending or capital spending and that recessions mark end of one theme and the start of another. The peak for a...
Read MoreImmediately below is a chart comparison between, from bottom to top, the ratio between copper futures and the CRB Index, the U.S. 10-year T-Note futures, the share price of Agrium (AGU), and the share price of Intel (INTC).We...
Read MoreWe are going to take another run at the basic argument that we put forth in yesterday’s issue. The argument was that there was a certain similarity between the market cycles into 1987 and that of the current time period....
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