The markets tend to trend quarter to quarter so, in a sense, current volatility represents traders trying to extend the trend for a few more days even as conditions deteriorate. Speaking (writing) of sense and quarters we were...
Read MoreWe have generally stuck with arguments based on the glass being half full but we might as well show one perspective that allows for a bearish resolution over the next quarter or so. The idea comes from our ‘decade thesis’. The...
Read MoreToday’s second and third pages have much to do with the share price of Japanese consumer products maker Panasonic (PC). However we are going to start things off with a broad-based macro perspective as we work to determine the...
Read MoreOver the last while we have cobbled together a thesis of what we believe the trend will ‘look like’ over the second half of the year. As theses go this one is a bit complicated with quite a few moving parts. We thought that...
Read MoreWe first encountered the term ‘constructive’ with respect to an analyst’s view of a stock price about 25 years ago. At the time our initial response was… huh? If the analyst was positive then that is how it should have...
Read MoreIn general… in recent years the markets have tended to focus on energy price strength through the first two quarters. In general… when grains prices have been stronger the tendency is for prices to peak around the...
Read MoreOur immediate problem (likely one of many) is that we really aren’t that bearish with respect to the equity markets. We realize that there is almost a rush out there to publish the most negative forecasts and projections and...
Read MoreIn a sense the markets are ‘in between’ with respect to energy prices. Crude oil futures are no longer strong enough to help support the share prices of the energy producers yet remain too strong to create a positive trend for...
Read MoreOn any given day strength or weakness in commodity prices can always be explained in some way by ‘the news’. The end of last week, however, seemed somewhat contradictory as traders apparently added to bullish commodity bets to...
Read MoreWe thought that we would start out today by showing a relationship that we really should have been focusing on in recent weeks. Our view has been that it doesn’t fit in well with our overall thesis but… anyone involved...
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