There were two pieces of news for the markets to stew over yesterday. First, China raised interest rates by 1/4% on Christmas Day as it continues to try to offset rising asset price speculation and inflation. Second, bailed-out...
Read MoreThe market often resembles one or more previous time frames. Our view is that cycles tend to repeat in a broad sense so it makes sense to look at a variety of comparisons. Today we are focusing on the similarities between today...
Read MoreU.S. short-term interest rates began to rise in mid-2004 while similar European yields did not turn upwards until the fourth quarter of 2005. U.S. interest rates started to fall in 2007 while short-term European yields did not...
Read MoreOur bottom line once again is that the cyclical trend will remain positive through the end of this year. Given that the month, quarter, and year are rapidly drawing to a close our focus is shifting somewhat from offense to...
Read MoreThere never seems to be a good time to step away from the markets but it has been our habit most years to take the first part of December off. Our view is and has been that the cyclical trend will remain stronger through year...
Read MoreNote: We will be AWOL through the first half of December. Back to work on Dec. 14th. There will be an IMRA issue sent out this evening to round out the week and then it is time to recharge the mental batteries. Cutting to the...
Read MoreThe best argument that we can make with respect to Japanese equities is that eventually the market gets around to just about everything. Out of favor sectors in one cycle become relative strength leaders in the next cycle while...
Read MoreThe basic story with regard to crude oil has been that with emerging and Asian (China) markets demand rising strongly as soon as demand in the developed markets (U.S.) returned to pre-2008 levels we would see dramatically...
Read MoreAt times the markets seem to move so quickly that it is almost impossible to react while at other times trends grind on so slowly that one is lulled into a state of near paralysis. We tend to deal with the highs and lows of fear...
Read MoreOur basic view is positive on equities and negative on bonds. We are still tilted negative on the U.S. dollar (see page 3) for the time being but would like to see downward pressure build on the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. We...
Read More
