Author: Kevin Klombies

When we get our teeth into a topic we tend to stick with it for a few days so we are going to start off today by taking another run at the ‘decade theme’. The idea is that the markets have shifted major themes each...

Given that we have made this argument many times in the past we will summarize it as quickly as possible so that we can move on to our point. The commodity markets peaked at the start of the 1980’s and then spent close to...

We imagine that it is obvious that crude oil prices are rising due to concerns about potential disruptions in supply. The problem is that what is ‘obvious’ and what is ‘real’ may not be the same thing. We...

We thought that we would end off the week with a bit of a chart-based exploration of the 2-year lag. We have been working with the thesis that the cyclical trend lags behind changes in interest rates for well over a decade and...

At the risk of beating the topic into the ground we thought we would take yet another swing at the ‘which way are yields trending’ intermarket theme. Our view (once again) is that one has to have a sense of both the...

We mention from time to time that getting the bond market ‘right’ is one of the keys for our work. To the extent that the bond market tends to lead the cyclical trend knowing whether long-term yields are moving...

Over the years we have used quite a number of individual stocks to represent a variety of themes. A number of our core indicator stocks have disappeared through takeovers or mergers including Phelps Dodge, Alcan, Inco, Anheuser...

We are most certainly not high-frequency traders. We are not interested in day trading or in flattening the books ahead of the close so as not to carry a position through the night. We do our best to filter out as much of the...

When the equity markets turn bearish on a sustained basis you can usually look back at the way the trend was deteriorating and realize that the outcome should have been obvious. While the equity markets certainly were weaker...

In the months to come economists will spend quite a bit of time trying to figure out when the Fed will start to tighten credit through increases in the Fed funds rate. Our view is that short-term interest rates will start to...